Frontlog to front page: a data-led news story

By mid-2025, the conversation around NHS waiting lists had become predictable, and the figure of seven million people on waiting lists and talks of 52-week waits was old news – it was no longer getting the attention it deserved. To cut through the fatigue, we needed a new lens - one that exposed an overlooked, system-wide challenge and reignited public and policy debate.

Working with MBI Health - elective recovery experts providing data validation and advisory services for the NHS - we sought to raise awareness of a never-before-reported issue with a new data news story: three million people on the elective waiting list had not had any clinical contact at all following referral by their GP. This was an unrecognised cohort who had effectively stalled at the front door of elective care, unseen and unmeasured in national reporting.

We coined this group 'Frontlog', standing in contrast to the 'backlog' narrative that had previously dominated public discourse. Without addressing this building upstream pressure, tackling the backlog would always be out of reach, and the number of people waiting for a long time would continue.

Turning data into debate

To get to the insight which changed thinking around how the NHS measures and manages care delays, we began by analysing NHS Referral to Treatment (RTT) data, cross-referencing publicly available records with MBI datasets. Our analysis uncovered approximately three million patients who had been referred by their GP for elective care, but were yet to be seen for the first time – whether for an outpatient appointment, diagnostic test, or telephone consultation. This insight revealed a hidden subset of patients, effectively invisible within national statistics due to limited breakdown of the waiting list in official reporting, and exclusive focus on the longest waiters.

We further discovered that a third of these three million patients had already been waiting more than 18 weeks without any form of clinical contact - a figure that cast new light on the feasibility of meeting national performance targets, and showed why many areas struggled to gain traction in recovery.

Another challenge to be considered in our analysis was the significant inaccuracy within RTT patient records – an overlooked issue that MBI’s expertise in data assurance was able to identify and quantify. By building this into our model, we could provide a uniquely robust and credible picture of the waiting list. We also humanised this insight through case examples and accessible language, bringing the story back to people, not pathways, and ensuring that this resonated beyond statistics.

Insight meets impact

Insight alone doesn’t shift public debate. It needs to be placed where it can be examined, challenged, and taken seriously. To launch the story, we worked exclusively with The Guardian’s Health Policy Editor, Denis Campbell, whose authority, accuracy, and sense of the wider system made him the right partner. The Frontlog debuted in August as a front-page story, presenting a considered, analytical reframing of the elective care crisis. It connected a dry technical dataset to the lived experience of patients who had been waiting for months without even a first conversation about their care.

The response was immediate. The Press Association syndicated the analysis nationwide within hours, prompting extensive follow-up coverage across The Telegraph, The Sun, ITV News, MSN, The Independent and regional outlets.

The core narrative held consistent across more than 300 articles and 95 broadcast pieces, and within 48 hours, the Frontlog had reached an estimated 625 million people.

Amplification and stakeholder engagement

Online, we further amplified this messaging through MBI’s own channels, where giving the Frontlog a unique identity helped to drive widespread recognition. LinkedIn became a forum for constructive debate, with strong engagement from trust leaders, system executives, and clinicians. Website traffic hit record highs, reinforcing the sense that this insight resonated particularly within the audiences who needed it most.

Behind the scenes, the story also travelled into policy circles. NHS England has shown a keen interest in the story and its implications for national strategy.

A strategic reset

This story marked a critical shift in how the system talked about elective care. The Frontlog quickly became a reference point across media, commentary, and health policy discussions. It gave journalists and officials a new vocabulary for describing delays – and discussing solutions. It pushed upstream waits - previously absent from public debate - into the centre of conversations about recovery. And it highlighted that the NHS cannot meaningfully evaluate progress without first understanding how long patients wait for initial contact.

This change in framing created the conditions for more honest dialogue about what it will take to improve elective care: stronger data assurance, earlier visibility of patients, and better alignment of diagnostics and triage capacity earlier in the patient pathway.

Insight is most powerful when it prompts action, and the Frontlog has shown the value of illuminating the parts of the system that are hardest to see. If you’d like to discuss how smart analysis and precision storytelling can change the conversation for your organisation, get in touch - we’ve seen how it can move headlines and policy.